Sources said Baghdad suspects that two sites storing Chinese-made man-portable air defense systems were targeted in airstrikes last week, as officials examine an intelligence assessment suggesting that the US-Israeli war against Iran may have already resumed, even before the official start of hostilities, but on Iraqi soil. On October 17, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) announced that it had contained a fire caused by an explosion at a stockpile of damaged ammunition inside one of its facilities in the East Canal area of Baghdad. It said five people sustained minor injuries and that an investigation was underway to determine the circumstances of the incident. More than a week has passed without the findings of the investigation being announced. However, an Iraqi government official who was not authorized to speak publicly said the relevant authorities were still examining the circumstances of the explosion. Chinese Air Defense Systems Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the two sites were suspected of having come under attack, destroying a large shipment of Chinese-made air defense systems that had recently arrived from Iran and been transferred to Iraqi factions loyal to Tehran. One source explained that "the armed faction that selected the site to store the air defense systems believed it would be extremely difficult to access or detect." The source added that "the suspected attack occurred shortly after the shipments arrived at the two storage sites." Another source revealed that the explosion followed a series of blasts that began on October 1 and targeted warehouses belonging to armed factions in various areas around Baghdad, including facilities storing drones designed for suicide attacks and reconnaissance. According to the sources, several armed factions have been actively transferring advanced air defense systems and drones from Iran to Iraq over the past few weeks and storing them at facilities under their control. Unconfirmed reports had suggested that secret shipments from China to Iran included heat-seeking man-portable air defense systems designed to counter low-flying aircraft, including helicopters and drones. On July 28, China's Foreign Ministry categorically denied reports of deals involving the sale or shipment of Chinese-made missiles and air defense systems to Iran. Repositioning The factions' activities coincided with the participation of several of them in the government led by Ali al-Zaidi, following reports that US approval had enabled their inclusion after they were granted an extension until June 30, 2027, to comply with a deadline for bringing weapons under state control. Two people close to the leader of an armed faction told Asharq Al-Awsat that "Iran-aligned groups were exploiting the declared truce with the Americans to reposition themselves and transfer strategic weapons." Israel May Be Behind the Attack It remains unclear how the strikes were carried out, whether by fighter jets or drones. Conflicting reports have described sorties by Israeli fighter jets, supported by aerial refueling aircraft, through Iraqi airspace near the Iranian border. However, this information has not been independently confirmed. A security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that authorities in Baghdad had sufficient grounds to believe Israel was behind the strikes on the warehouses, although they had yet to determine how the attacks were conducted. An Iraqi official said the government was focused on investigating the incident because of the extensive damage inflicted on the two sites and surrounding areas. The official confirmed that the government did not yet possess conclusive information identifying those responsible for the attack. He added that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and senior military commanders were working to gather further information about the strikes and determine whether they were linked to reports of Israeli violations of Iraqi airspace that began after the withdrawal of coalition forces on September 30, 2026. The information, including reports that the air defense systems had reached Iraq, could not be independently verified. Asharq Al-Awsat sought comment from the Iraqi government spokesperson and security media officials regarding the strikes, the extent of the damage and whether investigators had uncovered evidence identifying those responsible. No response had been received by the time this report was prepared. The War May Have Already Begun A senior political adviser said the attack reflected an assessment within Iraqi intelligence circles that the resumption of the US-Israeli war against Iran may already have begun, albeit quietly and without an official announcement, on Iraqi territory. According to this assessment, the operation involves targeting the supply lines of armed factions and disrupting weapons shipments to prevent them from participating in any renewed regional confrontation. A senior figure in the Coordination Framework said leaders of ruling political parties had believed for weeks that a renewed war between Washington and Tehran would begin with the complete destruction of the military capabilities of Iraqi armed factions. Iraqi factions placed particular emphasis on violations of Iraqi airspace when a truce was announced in conjunction with the withdrawal of US forces. On September 30, the secretary-general of Kataib Hezbollah announced the group's commitment to suspending military operations but excluded what he described as "attacks involving aircraft and hostile violations of airspace" until government air defenses were fully established. On Saturday, the group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it had "documented 171 violations of Iraqi airspace by combat and reconnaissance aircraft since the beginning of October 2026." The Coordination Framework official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officials had instructed leaders of Iraqi armed factions to step up preparations to establish a defensive line "against hostile combat aircraft."
