Iraqi sources revealed Wednesday details of a government plan to be implemented after the September 30, 2026 deadline for bringing weapons under state control expires. The plan includes "encircling leadership positions" of factions run by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), paving the way for their "gradual" dismantling. Iranian officials are meanwhile seeking to obstruct or delay the plan, although Baghdad has "designed a course that does not lead to armed confrontation." Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had previously set the end of next month as the deadline for the withdrawal of US forces from the country, as well as the deadline for bringing the weapons of armed factions under state control. The "Encirclement Plan" The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the government plan after September 30 calls for the deployment of regular army forces, Counter-Terrorism Service units, and elite units around the operational centers of armed factions and along roads leading to them, with the aim of restricting the movement of transport and supplies to and from these sites. The sources said government forces would gradually establish checkpoints under the command of officers to monitor the movement of weapons and seize them, with a focus on drones and missiles. According to the sources, the forces will begin imposing a tight security cordon around the armed factions’ operational centers without confrontation. The operation ultimately aims to push the factions "either to make a mistake, such as moving drones, to engage in armed confrontation, or to relinquish their positions to the official institution without firing a single shot." A source familiar with sensitive discussions over the weapons of factions run by the IRGC said, "Government forces will gradually and systematically tighten restrictions around these sites until reaching a stage that allows them to impose control over them, something that has been difficult to do for years." Military and political leaders reached this formula after discussions over a course that would spare both sides of the dispute over weapons outside state control from "military confrontation." Field sources said, "Army and Counter-Terrorism Service forces had already begun earlier this week deploying a number of officers at monitoring checkpoints in several areas and on highways as a trial phase of the plan." The sources confirmed that some of these checkpoints had "successfully intercepted shipments of drones headed to various locations in Iraqi areas over the past few weeks." Jurf al-Sakhar and Jurf al-Nadaf Asharq Al-Awsat learned that the plan is focused primarily on the sites of Jurf al-Sakhar, a stronghold of Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Jurf al-Nadaf, a stronghold of Harakat al-Nujaba, both south of Baghdad. Jurf al-Sakhar has been one of the factions’ most important strongholds since 2014. It is believed to have become a strategic military base for the factions, containing camps, prisons, storage facilities, and missile and drone production facilities. Many, however, believe it is an operational center for Iran’s IRGC. Jurf al-Nadaf, located on the southeastern outskirts of Baghdad near the Baghdad-Mada’in road, has emerged in recent years as a site containing headquarters and facilities belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and armed factions affiliated with it. Security attention has increased around the area because, according to Iraqi security sources, it is linked to facilities used to store weapons and ammunition, as well as military activity by Iran-aligned factions. In July 2026, security sources said a joint security force raided a headquarters believed to belong to Harakat al-Nujaba in Jurf al-Nadaf. The site reportedly contained a drone manufacturing facility and had been used to launch drones targeting various locations. Iraqi sources said, "Intelligence assessments indicated that the drone shipments that were seized, or those launched toward various targets, were connected to a command center at these sites." Although the force involved in the raid included the Baghdad Operations Command, Federal Police, and the PMF Security Directorate, it withdrew without searching the site. A political source familiar with the matter said, "The failure of the operation to storm the Jurf al-Nadaf headquarters gave military leaders sufficient insight to modify the plan from storming the headquarters to encircling them and restricting access to them." Wider Deployment The armed factions’ presence is not limited to Jurf al-Sakhar and Jurf al-Nadaf, both located southwest of Baghdad, but the two sites are receiving particular attention because of their strategic importance and proximity to the capital. The factions also have positions in Tuz Khurmatu in Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad, and Amerli, also in Salahuddin province, as well as Camp Ashraf in Diyala province, northeast of Baghdad, and sites in the city of Kut, the capital of Wasit province, southeast of the capital. According to a senior political official, the factions run by Iran’s IRGC have two main missions. The first is to establish positions very close to Baghdad to ensure the ability to intervene rapidly if necessary, which explains their extensive presence at multiple points and sites there. The second mission is to tighten the pressure on Sunni areas by controlling their key geographic nodes, particularly those near the Syrian border. The sources confirmed that "imposing a cordon and restricting movement around facilities belonging to factions run by the IRGC is part of a broader plan that includes removing all PMF brigades from all cities and redeploying them according to a plan determined by the military leadership independently of faction commanders." A senior political official told Asharq Al-Awsat, "The government plan is designed to avoid armed confrontation with the factions. At an advanced stage, it also aims to bring the armed factions into serious negotiations with the authorities within a national framework over their status and the future of their members." Iran Says "The Time Is Not Right" So far, Kata’ib Hezbollah, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba, all allies of Iran, have refused to hand their weapons over to the state. Activists close to these groups say that "the Resistance Axis will not surrender its weapons even after the Americans withdraw," and have openly and defiantly called for "restricting the state’s weapons to the factions." The government plan has raised concerns among Iranian officials over the fate of strategic weapons held by the factions, as well as command and control centers staffed by Iranian advisers affiliated with the IRGC. According to two political sources, Iranian officials told leaders of the Coordination Framework alliance that the timing of the campaign was extremely unfavorable because the regional situation requires allies to hold on to their weapons, particularly in Iraq. A political source close to the leader of an influential Shiite party said, "The latter tried to persuade the Iranians not to put further pressure on the prime minister, who is already under pressure from the Americans over the issue of weapons. The failure of this government would also mean the end of the Coordination Framework alliance and its fledgling government, which is facing a severe financial crisis." The source added that "the Iranians are pressuring the Coordination Framework to push the government to postpone implementation of the plan," adding that "the factions will ultimately seek to buy time until the balance of power changes locally and regionally, and the locations of their military assets are changed."
