The situation appears to be heading toward escalation as negotiations on the Lebanese track have reached an impasse and the 60-day ceasefire period between the United States and Iran has expired. If reports circulating that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has decided to launch an attack to break the siege are accurate, and if Iran has increased its production of missiles and drones during the truce and is working to mobilize its proxies in the region, then southern Lebanon becomes part of Iran’s calculations. It would be managing the battle there directly by tying the Lebanese track to its agenda, without this necessarily meaning a war to liberate the south from Israeli occupation.
