In between the three or more ceasefires that Israel has fractured in Lebanon this month, its military has crept forward in the country’s south, edging toward higher ground that would increase its firepower over the Nabatieh valley. Israel’s crawl uphill, however, has done little to shift the conditions of a confrontation with Hezbollah that it has now dragged out for nearly four months. In the process, it has killed more than 4,000 people, displaced hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, and threatened the stability of a wider regional peace between Iran and the United States, even amid talks between Israel and Lebanon taking place with US mediation. But according to two informed sources who spoke to Mada Masr on condition of anonymity — a regional diplomat with direct knowledge of the Israeli-Lebanese negotiations and a Hezbollah political source — the question of establishing workable terms for at least a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon has emerged as a priority matter for the fifth round of these talks beginning in Washington, DC on Tuesday. The talks have taken on renewed momentum as Iran has insisted on progress toward a halt to fighting in Lebanon in the parallel track of negotiations ongoing between Tehran and Washington in Switzerland. The US’s tone toward Israel and its attacks on Lebanese people and territory has become more severe in tandem. And while the US president has gestured vaguely to hopes that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa could intervene to shift the state of the field and weaken Hezbollah from the east, the Hezbollah source, as well as three other sources informed of political and security matters in Lebanon and Syria speaking to Mada Masr, refuted the prospect. As a result, the regional diplomat said the DC talks are set to revolve around what withdrawal can actually look like in practice, with all parties aware that Israel will refuse to withdraw or halt its fire completely and Hezbollah is no longer willing to turn a blind eye to Israel’s attacks as it did under the ceasefire terms established in 2024. As a result, “Lebanese and Israeli delegations will return with ideas aimed at sustaining the calm,” the regional diplomat said, “and ideas aimed at opening the door to what could be described as a repositioning of the Israeli military in southern Lebanon in one form or another.” It will remain to be seen how far the repositioning can effectively calm the front Israel has created inside Lebanese territory. *** There is a convergence between the sides around what is seen as a feasible scenario for Israel’s withdrawal, said the diplomatic source. “What is possible today,” he continued, “is moving toward confining the Israeli military presence to the positions it currently holds, potentially accompanied at a later stage by a reduction in Israeli military vehicles.” According to the source, the understanding would be that a series of partial withdrawals would take place over the coming months, with the Lebanese military deploying to areas vacated by Israeli forces. Speaking at midday Monday in the lead-up to the talks the source said the Washington negotiations will include discussions on points from which the Israeli military could move out, even if only to a limited extent, alongside a corresponding movement of Hezbollah elements and the deployment of Lebanese military vehicles in coordination with Hezbollah. This would be accompanied by Israeli-Lebanese security coordination through the US-led monitoring mechanism — the joint committee that brings together Lebanon, Israel, the US, France and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. A partial withdrawal of this kind already took place earlier this month in southwest Lebanon. As active clashes between Hezbollah and Israel stopped at the Debbine-Blat axis, the Lebanese military said it was deploying in Debbine to open the road and clear ordnance and obstructions left by Israeli forces who had withdrawn from the area. But since then, Israel has further entrenched itself in the central front of south Lebanon, attempting an advance to the Ali Taher hills area that would grant its troops strategic access to exercise firepower over the Nabatieh valley. While a new ceasefire reportedly established a halt to direct confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel on the Nabatieh front on Friday and the Lebanese military said it had deployed nearby at Kafr Tabnit and Nabatieh al-Fawqa, the military also noted limitations and operational challenges “amid ongoing Israeli attacks and violations.” *** “There are many technical and operational aspects to this matter, all of which require detailed discussion,” said the regional diplomat, noting that there are limitations on what can emerge from the talks since neither side is fully willing to lay aside its arms. This is because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing sharp criticism in Israel over what is described as the abject failure of the US-Israeli war against Iran, was never keen on a ceasefire in southern Lebanon. “On the contrary, he actually wanted to strike deep into Dahiyeh,” the source said. Israeli government figures have kept up a push for operations in Lebanon over recent days, with National Security Minister Itmar Ben Gvir prompting condemnation from the international community after he called for Israel to “burn all of Lebanon.” Hezbollah will therefore remain determined to fight back, the Hezbollah political source confirmed. “No one can guarantee Israel will stop striking Lebanon,” said the Hezbollah source. “[Israel] is almost in defiance of [US President Donald] Trump’s decision on this issue and is not complying with his repeated and insistent calls to end its war on Lebanon.” “Hezbollah will not stop resisting the Israeli occupation even if only a single fighter remains,” the source continued. “We insist on the continuation of the objectives of Hezbollah and the resistance, which includes non-Shia elements, through their war against the enemy. Our matter is separate from any negotiations conducted by the Lebanese government.” At the same time, Hezbollah is aware that the negotiations in Washington do not only affect the situation on the ground, but open the door to a wide range of political and security questions related to Lebanon’s future and Israel’s role. And on the question of Israel’s future role toward Lebanon, Hezbollah has some hard limits. The regional source noted that regardless of the momentum toward a ceasefire being generated from the parallel regional discussions in Switzerland between the US and Iran, Hezbollah’s own interests require that it maintain a presence in certain areas of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah also insists that Israel should not be granted freedom of movement in south Lebanon and is putting pressure on the Lebanese delegation in Washington not to hand out unnecessary concessions to Israel in this regard. The diplomatic source explained that the group understands Lebanon cannot compel Israel to withdraw entirely and directly from southern Lebanon. However, the source added, Hezbollah sees a distinction between the situation on the ground and a failure in the Washington negotiations to insist on demanding withdrawal and securing guarantees against future attacks. According to the source, the group has conveyed through intermediaries that it means what its officials have said — that it is prepared to move against the Lebanese government if the Washington talks move toward concessions to Israel that it considers gratuitous, such as accepting Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon “under any guise.” And it is not just Hezbollah that is applying pressure for the Lebanese delegation in Washington to hold firm. The delegation’s performance since the talks began in April has not been well received in Lebanon’s political scene, said the diplomatic source: “not only from Hezbollah and the broader Shia circle, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, but also from other circles,” including Walid Jumblatt, Lebanon’s Druze community leader, who has publicly criticized the delegation for aligning itself more than necessary with Israel’s negotiating position. Concerns, the source continued, have also been raised by some members of the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who worry that what the delegation says behind closed doors does not reflect sensitivity to the tensions among Lebanon’s political groups. *** But both Israel and Lebanon are expected to take part in the talks lasting until June 25, seeking to establish comparative calm and a shared understanding on how an Israeli “repositioning” could happen, the source said. The source cited the extra momentum given to the scheduled talks by Iran’s intervention in the matter on the parallel regional ceasefire track in Switzerland, and the consequent US pressure on Israel, both of which he described as components of the political will for the talks to move forward. “Iran, at least for now, still insists on linking the Iranian and Lebanese fronts,” said the source, noting that increasing US pressure on Israel has also played a role. Talks at the Swiss Bürgenstock resort were delayed last week amid reports that the Iranian delegation had refused to travel as Israel advanced toward the foothills surrounding Nabatieh and Hezbollah retaliated in the deadliest clashes in weeks. Trump, too, has increasingly expressed frustration with Israel’s insistence in prolonging its hostilities in Lebanon. Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, the US president said that Israel cannot “move” Hezbollah. “They can’t do anything without knocking buildings down,” he continued. Suggesting Israel is incapable of limiting Hezbollah’s capacity in the way it has sought to through its operations in Lebanon, Trump continued, “I am close to giving this to Syria because he would do a more precise job.” Back in reality, there is little prospect of Sharaa stepping up pressure on Hezbollah from Lebanon’s east. A Lebanese security source from the Beqaa Valley area confirms that there are Sunni militant groups in east Syria with links to existing splinter organizations in North Lebanon who were preparing to try and enter the Beqaa to start street-level fighting against Hezbollah. But these plans have no relation to Sharaa, who refuses to enter Lebanon, the source continued, “as he doesn’t want to be tied to Trump’s dreams.” A Syrian political source also rejected the prospect of Syria and Sharaa engaging in a new war with Lebanon, “with whom it is opening a new political page.” The Lebanese health minister has recently met with the Syrian foreign minister in Qatar, said a Lebanese Health Ministry source and a second Hezbollah source, in a meeting that established that Syria would not engage or intervene in any military action inside Lebanon, despite direct US pressure. The Hezbollah political source, too, described Trump’s gesture toward Sharaa as the US president “dreaming up scenarios that will never become reality.” “We have 1,000 percent certain information that Sharaa will not be drawn into a war with Lebanon or Hezbollah’s resistance,” said the source. “Sharaa will not wage war against Hezbollah,” said the source, noting that it would not serve the Syrian president’s own interests and would be a reckless adventure for Syria’s still tenuous national army, noting that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Oman had all reiterated the same view. *** There are already challenges to the state of calm under discussion. Israeli artillery fire toward Nabatieh city killed two people on Tuesday, one of them a municipal employee, Hezbollah said in a statement. The group warned that it considers the attack an “outrageous infraction of the ceasefire that the resistance has adhered to until now.” But Lebanon has considerable regional backing to use these talks to reach security and political understandings short of normalization between Lebanon and Israel, in a way that keeps Lebanon outside the cycle of repeated Israeli targeting, according to three Arab diplomats informed of developments in Lebanon. These three diplomats previously told Mada Masr that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have received clear and direct support from several influential Arab capitals, which have stressed the importance of Lebanon engaging seriously in the Washington negotiations and making use of an exceptional moment created by the war on Iran. One of the sources, an Arab diplomat in New York, told Mada Masr on Monday that the existing tensions between Trump and Netanyahu over the war on Iran and related issues concerning Lebanon could open the door for the Lebanese delegation in Washington to secure greater US backing, enabling it to achieve a decent outcome in the negotiations, “if not in this round, then in a subsequent one.” At the same time, space has opened for Hezbollah and Israel to hash out some of the security and political questions. The Hezbollah political source said that Qatar is set to mediate a parallel set of indirect negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel — without sidelining the talks taking place under the Lebanese government. The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced Monday that talks on the regional track had established that a “de-confliction cell, between the parties, the Lebanese Republic and facilitated by the Mediators,” would be created to help establish “adherence” to the halt of military operations in Lebanon that is to form one of the conditions in the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran that is being drafted in the Swiss Bürgenstock resort. The Lebanese who are waiting to return to their homes in the south, or risking Israeli aggression to return to homes not far from Israeli troops still stationed there, are paying the price in the meantime.The post A ‘repositioning’ of Israel’s forces in south Lebanon: What’s on the table at the Lebanon-Israel talks beginning in Washington? first appeared on Mada Masr.
