Can Europe replace US military support for Ukraine? The intelligence and satellite gaps

From satellite surveillance and early warning systems to Starlink and secure communications, Europe is working to reduce its reliance on Washington, but significant technological and coordination gaps remain.

The Russo-Ukrainian war has raised questions about Europe's ability to continue supporting Kyiv if American assistance diminishes, particularly in intelligence, satellite capabilities, and military communications. These capabilities help Ukrainian forces monitor Russian movements, identify targets, track developments on the ground, and coordinate military operations.

European countries possess significant technological and military capabilities, yet they remain dependent on the United States in certain advanced areas. Partially compensating for American support is therefore possible, but it requires substantial investment and long-term coordination among European countries.

Countries such as France, Germany, and Italy have satellites and advanced capabilities in Earth observation and intelligence gathering. Europe can also leverage commercial companies that provide satellite imagery to monitor military movements and assess damage.

However, the challenge extends beyond providing images. It also involves collecting information from multiple sources, analyzing it rapidly, and delivering it to Ukrainian forces in a timely manner. The United States excels in certain areas, particularly missile early warning, continuous surveillance, and the integration of intelligence data.

Bridging these gaps requires long-term investment and broader cooperation among European countries, making full compensation difficult in the near term.

American Starlink services are among the most critical communication tools used by Ukraine. They enable continuous communication between military units and command centers, even in areas where traditional communication networks have been damaged.

In contrast, Europe is working to develop alternatives, including Eutelsat's OneWeb network and the IRIS² secure satellite communications project, which aims to pool available European governmental capabilities.

These initiatives can reduce dependence on American services. However, they do not currently offer a ready alternative comparable to Starlink in terms of network size, coverage, rapid deployment, and integration with military applications. Some European projects remain in the development stage.

Europe is also seeking to strengthen its digital independence by developing secure cloud services and protecting data against cyberattacks. These services help store, analyze, and share intelligence information among institutions.

However, advanced digital infrastructure cannot compensate for the absence of the information sources themselves, such as satellites and early warning systems. Reducing reliance on Washington requires an integrated system capable of collecting, processing, and securely transmitting information.

Europe can increase its support for Ukraine by expanding information exchange, investing in satellite communications, developing early warning systems, and enhancing cybersecurity. However, the distribution of capabilities across multiple countries and institutions presents challenges related to coordination, funding, and the speed of decision-making.

Europe cannot currently and immediately compensate for all American capabilities. The most realistic option remains to gradually reduce reliance on Washington, share the burden between the two parties, and develop European capabilities over the long term.

Researcher in international security and terrorism, Head of the European Center ECCI

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.

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